face up on the table. | MONTHLY HAND | JULY 2001 |
| THIS MONTH'S TOPICS:
Assumptions Counting Winners Creating Winners Bridge Distribution Rule The Dummy's cards are tabled and the Declarer
takes the count. Is the contract cold? That is, can she take
the tricks and run; or give the Defense their tricks and claim the rest?
With this month's hand, a suit has to split a certain way. If this does not happen, Declarer must consider alternative lines of play. Which one offers the best chance of winning tricks? A little help comes from knowing the way suits divide among the players: the Bridge Distribution Rule. |
| BIDDING |
| The bidding is fairly straight forward.
South with a very flat 4 3 3 3 hand and 17 High Card Points (HCP) opens
with 1 No Trump. North with 11 HCP goes right to game in 3 No Trump. 11
+ 17 = 28 points, which is the combined number of points between
North and South. That is more than the 26 pointds in the combined hands
that are needed to bid game. Of course, having more than 26 points means
that game should be bid; it does not mean that it can necessarily
be made. It is also possible to make game with less than 26 points.
East/West have a Spade fit but do not have enough points to bid. At most they have 5 tricks, not enough to enter the auction. |
| OPENING LEAD |
| The opponents failed to bid a major or
use the Stayman convention. This suggests a major suit lead. Hearts are
made to order with its three card sequence. West puts the 10
face up on the table. |
| DEFENSE |
| Good Defenders will only change suits if they have a very good reason to do so. In this hand East and West must persevere with Hearts. Unfortunately, since Hearts split 4/3, they will only get 1 Heart trick after losing 3. Playing Diamonds or Spades will not create a trick for the Defense. |
| PLAY |
| Dummy comes down with 11 HCP. Very nice.
Game should be cold. Count winners: 3 Spades; 3 Hearts; and 2 Diamonds,
for 8 tricks. Not so cold; luke warm maybe? Where is that elusive 9th trick
coming from? There is an ordinary finesse in Diamonds which is a 50 % chance
of winning.
Not bad, but is there another way to play this hand with even better odds? If Defenders push Hearts, they will always win at least 1 Heart trick. And they will always have 3 Club tricks. So there are defenitely 3 Club losers and 1 Heart loser. Then, if the Diamond finesse loses, that will be number five for the Defense and the hand will be set. Is there another way the 9th trick can be gotten? By elimination, if the play is not Diamonds, Hearts or Spades, then it must be Tuesday. And on Tuesday it is Clubs. There are 5 Clubs out among the Defenders. If Clubs split 3 cards in one hand, and 2 cards in the other hand, i.e. a 3/2 split, then the 4th round of Clubs will be a winner. (The Defenders will have no Clubs by then.) East/West always have three Club winners, so Declarer is not giving anything away that they do not deserve. The way to go is to lose 3 Club tricks immediately and take the 4th Club for the game winning trick. Try to lose tricks early in the play. That is, take your loses early. (If you tend to take your winners early, try to attend a Premature Trick Winning clinic in your neighborhood.) Things look good now, so it's time to assume the worst. Suppose one Defender has 3 Clubs and 5 Hearts. In the race of the long suits the Defender will win because he started first. A Heart is played, back a Club; another Heart, back another Club; the third Heart, back a third Club. The last 2 Hearts in West's hand are now winners. (West lost 3 Hearts in order to get 2.) The Defense can now take these 2 Heart winners plus the 3 Club winners for down 1. So, Declarer has to play for a 4/3 Heart split. This is a good percentage play. There is a Bridge Distribution Rule stating that if the Defenders have an odd number of cards between their two hands, the suit will tend to split as evenly as possible. In this case, since East/West have 7 Hearts between them, the suit will tend to split 3/4. This 3/4 split is much more likely to occur (it will happen 62% of the time) than a 1/6 or 0/7 or even a 2/5 split. Note that the 5 Clubs with the Defenders will split 3/2 67% of the time. The corollary to the above rule is that if the Defenders have an even number of cards between their two hands, the suit will tend not to split down the middle. Thus if the Defense has 4 cards between them, then the suit will tend to split 3/1 (not 2/2). If the Defense has 6 cards between them, then the most likely split will be 4/2. (not 3/3). The 4/2 split occurs 48% of the time, while the 3/3 split occurs 36% of the time. Even though Hearts may tend to split 4/3, suppose they split 5/2? (A 31% chance.) Declarer will know this because one of the Defenders will not follow suit when Hearts are led for the third round. If this happens the Declarer has to formulate a new plan. PLAY: Win the Heart and return a Club. East wins and continues with a Heart. South wins and plays another Club (the 2nd). West wins and plays the 3rd Heart. Here goes! East follows with a Heart. Let the sun shine in! Now it is safe for South to play the 3rd Club (setting up the 4th Club as a winner). West wins the 3rd Club and can only cash one winning Heart trick. No matter what West returns, Declarer wins and cashes out: 3 Spades, 3 Hearts; 2 Diamonds, and 1 Club. That is 9 tricks; making 3 No Trump. Note: South had to lose 3 Clubs to make one. But that one gave her the game. QUESTIONS: 1. Should Declarer take other winners before playing Clubs? 2. Suppose on the 3rd Heart, East does not follow. What does Declarer do? |
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